RISKS IN AGRICULTURE: ASSESSMENT OF INFLUENCE OF WEATHER CONDITIONS ON THE GRAIN CROPS YIELD IN BELARUSIAN POLESYE

Based on the mathematical model of crop, an algorithm for quantitative assessment agricultural risk crops cultivated in specific soil and climatic conditions has been developed. Classification risks according to crop losses is proposed, similar gradation adopted insurance payments, but more detailed. It established that indicators do not depend level nutrition, each year are determined only by precipitation air temperatures during active growing season. Calculations grain Belarusian Polesye made. Of five years barley cultivation, one (2007) can be characterized as critical terms heat moisture supply Crop yield due adverse weather exceeded 50 %. In 2005, minimum cultivation barley, related sustainable farming, was obtained. Cultivation under 2006 2008 low-risk 2009 should attributed high-risk cultivation. According average indicator rate research, which amounted 28.6 %, region, its climate conditions, corresponds agriculture with risk. For winter triticale, out four 2008, were line farming. triticale a high risk, – low On 4 years, 28.1%. Consequently, region Polesye, well